Lisbon, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

587
FXUS63 KFGF 280502
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1202 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late
  this afternoon through the early overnight hours. The main
  hazards will be wind to 70 mph, hail to size of golf balls,
  and isolated tornadoes.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Monday  afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be gusty
  winds to 60 mph and quarter size hail.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of southeast ND and
  west-central MN as heat indices rise into the upper 90s/low
  100s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...Synopsis...

Westerly flow aloft remains in place with a stubborn frontal zone
acting as a focus for thunderstorm development through Monday.
Eventually an upper low deepening over Hudson bay will bring late
Monday brings northwest flow, lowering the chance for organized
thunderstorm chances and bringing below average temperatures to the
region Tuesday through Thursday, though there are still chances for
light showers with passing waves. The amount of instability/moisture
availability will be much less though, lowering coverage/amounts.
Northerly flow does raise the potential for a return to smoke
impacts once again though. By next weekend there is still a
signal for upper level ridging to build back towards the east,
with greater spread in how it breaks down, transitioning back to
some form of zonal flow. For now machine learning based systems
are not highlighting an increased risk for severe
thunderstorms, but the type of zonal pattern that may evolve
could still support a conditional risk late in the weekend and
early the next week.

...Severe risk today and tonight...

The main baroclinic/frontal zone of interest is in our southern CW
with a secondary front in our north associated with increasing CAA
and much more stable air (rooted with old MCV/shortwave trough in
Canada). The greatest severe risk will be with the southern front,
with a reservoir of higher instability (MLCAPE 3000-4500 J/KG)
to the south, with elevated instability still holding in the
2000-3000 J/KG range into northwest MN north of the approaching
cold front. Strong mid level flow is resulting in deep effective
shear 35-50kt across our CWA. Elevated showers/storms that have
developed along the font have been lingering and if they do not
clear their cold pool may delay clearing and result in the axis
of better differential heating to remain outside of our CWA,
which latest HRRR trends are starting to show. There is still a
window for elevated storms to develop though, with and with the
amount of deep layer shear hail/wind would still be a threat
within that axis of elevated instability. If we do clear though
the window for surface based heating could still allow for a
tornado threat in the 23-02Z period, and it will be close enough
to continue monitoring.

Earlier guidance had been trying to resolve a less organized mid
level wave/impulse over southern Alberta moving into our region
late evening/overnight, and there are some indications in WV
imagery of this weak feature. Some CAMs have shown a period of
elevated convection with a marginal severe threat spreading east
or southeast towards our CWA late in the evening into the early
overnight, (weakening as it approached our northwest). There
isn`t a lot of consistency with this signal and this would be
well north of the cold front where marginal elevated narrow
instability profiles (1000 J/KG) are forecast, lowering
confidence in severe threat overnight.

...Severe threat Monday...

If confidence is low in severe threat today, that is double for
Monday. The cold front is shown to eventually stall with the
lingering baroclinic zone in our south still in place with some
models, though others shift this southward. CAMs show high
variability in evolution as forcing remains diffuse until a more
organized wave approaches Monday night, by which time the air mass
will be stabilizing. There are at least some CAMs that show the
potential for discrete cells near our CWA or MCS development that
would move along the edge of our CWA, and it is close enough to
monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

VFR conditions prevail through much of the TAF period at all
sites. The only potential hazard will be the possibility for
showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage
will be minimal at KDVL, KGFK, and KTVF, with slightly better
chances at KFAR. Winds gradually shift a bit more northerly
overnight into Monday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Lynch